Although independence is on the rise and the right-wing is losing its grip in Catalonia, movements within their respective ideological blocs now create more division of the vote than six months ago. We analyse what has been the transfer of votes within the independence bloc and within right parties at Catalan municipalities level
The rise of pro-independence parties and the fall of the right-wing are some of the headlines left by the repetition of elections in Catalonia. On the one hand, the sum of pro-independence parties (ERC, JxCat and CUP) has crossed for the first time the border of 40% of the votes cast in Catalonia in a Spanish general election, although it has not reached the vote percentage of the last European neither Catalan elections. On the other hand, the sum of right-wing parties (PP, Cs and Vox) has lost almost one in ten Catalan votes compared to April 28.
Pro-independence parties won a seat despite increasing by only 1% the votes they won in last April’s elections. This is partly due to the decline of PSC and Comuns — which have lost 17% and 11% of the votes respectively — and to the entry of CUP — who have managed to transform the majority of their votes into seats, something that did not happen to Front Republicà —.
The big difference between the two elections, however, has been the distribution of votes between the three parties, much more pronounced in November than in the April elections. Esquerra Republicana is still the first party, yes, but there is less distance between them and Junts per Catalunya. If in April ERC won almost two-thirds of the pro-independence votes, it just took over half in the repeat election. JxCat has seen a small improvement that has materialized in the form of one more seat, and CUP has more than doubled the votes collected by the Front Republicà on 28A.
This division can also be seen at municipal level. On April 28, Esquerra was the first pro-independence force in 840 of the 947 Catalan municipalities, Junts per Catalunya was first in 107 and Front Republicà did not achieve it anywhere. This time, on the other hand, ERC has been the first party in votes cast in 701 municipalities, JxCat in 241 and CUP has obtained the first place in 5 locations (La Vilella Alta, Viladamat, Farrera, Lluçà and Palau de Santa Eulàlia).
In the graph above, you can see visually this division. Points that anchor to the vertices and sides of the triangle are those municipalities where the vote turned more toward one or two pro-independence parties. The graph for the 28A election shows a clear positioning of the vote towards ERC. Points that are distributed most towards the centre of the triangle, on the other hand, are those municipalities where the independence vote is not clearly oriented towards any of the three parties, but is distributed more evenly. This has happened most significantly in this 10N election.
Among right-wing parties, the great victim was undoubtedly Ciudadanos. In Catalonia, it has lost more than half of the votes in just over six months, which has given them two seats in the Parliament, 3 less than in the first election. Its recession has meant that, even if PP Vox have increased seats, respectively, the sum of the three right parties has lost one. The “Trio de Colón” now has 6 of the 48 seats elected from Catalonia, while in April they were 7.
At local level, six months ago Ciudadanos were the first force among the right in 783 Catalan municipalities. This Sunday, they have only won in 76 of them. Vox were the first right-wing party in 15 municipalities on 28A, while in 10N they have won in 301 places. Finally, PP won its right-wing rivals in 149 Catalan municipalities in April and has now risen to 570, thus becoming the winner among the right-wing parties.
However, the change in the direction of the right in Catalonia is a little less pronounced than in Spain, where PP gets back most of the municipalities where Ciudadanos won in April, as they have analysed in El Confidencial. Statewide, Vox has been the first of the right in 526 villages, while in April it was in 142. And Ciudadanos is the first party of the right in only five cities, while in 28A they were 395.
The methodology for this analysis is in this GitHub repository.